The country's real GDP growth in the first quarter will be better than the Reserve Bank's estimate of 8 per cent, economists said on Tuesday. Economists at the country's largest lender SBI pegged the growth at 8.3 per cent while domestic rating agency Icra estimated it to come even higher at 8.5 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which expects the GDP to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY24, has estimated a growth of 8 per cent in the April-June period.
'... that it once again shies away from renewing its commitment to strategic divestment,' points out A K Bhattacharya.
With its age-old fascination for education, southern states have done better than the North. Start-ups, IT hubs, and industry majors setting up shop have changed the face of the South. Nearly 79% of global offices set up by international conglomerates in India are in the South. Almost 46% of tech unicorns are from the South. The GDP per person in the South is 4.2 times higher than the North. None of these indicators can be ignored by any central government, whatever the political compulsions, notes Ramesh Menon.
With emerging economies facing the possibility of "abrupt slowdowns", India's Gross Domestic Product growth rate could slip to as low as 4.3 per cent in 2009, said the OECD.
FY17 GDP growth faces cash crunch heat
The global lending agency also said that Brexit has resulted in global economic uncertainty.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday said India's growing water shortage can disrupt farm and industry sectors and is detrimental to the credit health of the sovereign as rising food inflation and decline in income may spark social unrest. It said decreases in water supply can disrupt agricultural production and industrial operations, resulting in inflation in food prices and hence can be detrimental to credit health of sectors that heavily consume water, such as coal power generators and steel-makers.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will be the fastest growing economy among Asia Pacific nations. The GDP growth forecast for the current and the next fiscal has been kept unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of domestic resilience. "We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
The number of Internet users in India will go up from 120 million at present to 330 million by 2015, according to a report by McKinsey.
India can sustain an 8 per cent growth rate till 2020 and will overtake UK as the world's fifth-largest economy by the middle of next decade at this pace, global financial services firm Goldman Sachs has said.
Chidambaram was remanded to two more days of CBI custody in the INX Media corruption case.
As India faces slowing economic growth, HSBC Global Research has downgraded the Indian stock market outlook from "overweight" to "neutral". In a report, the global financial services firm said profits at India Inc appeared to have softened while valuations are elevated. After annualized growth of 25 per cent in recent years, profits appear to have softened while valuations are elevated at 23x forward earnings.
There is a reason this 11 year phenomenon is a rule as much as it is an observation. It speaks to the nature of man and what humans are like, explains Aakar Patel.
Shares of state-owned bank stocks were under pressure on Monday due to muted deposit and credit growth numbers reported by these lenders in the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25). The Nifty PSU Bank index was down 4 per cent, with Union Bank of India emerging as the biggest loser as its shares fell 7.5 per cent to close at Rs 114.7, followed by a 5.7 per cent drop in shares of Bank of Baroda (BoB) to Rs 228 and a 4.7 per cent slide in shares of Bank of India to Rs 99.8 on the National Stock Exchange.
Interview with Asia-Pacific economist, Morgan Stanley
Manufacturing sector grows at 3.5%; agriculture sector at 3.8%
The most striking features of this Budget was its focus on simplification and improving the ease of doing business in India, asserts Kaku Nakhate.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
The ideal time to invest in sector funds, is during a downturn so that investors can capitalise on a turnaround in 1.5 to 2 years.
India's growth, he said, remains resilient with low inflation, fiscal prudence and low current account deficit, talking about robust structural reform measures.
Under capital expenditure, Rs 48,614 crore has been set aside for aircraft and aero engines while Rs 24,390 crore has been allocated for the naval fleet.
'As the Budget has taken some measures to spur growth, similar action from the MPC may be expected.'
Instead of failing young Indians, the government should now focus laser-like on education, skilling, healthcare, and the environment, says Mihir S Sharma.
With this, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also sent a strong message to ally, Janata Dal-United President and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, that their partnership remains intact and that they will be formidable partners at the hustings.
India's economy grew 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, pushing up the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent, official data showed on Wednesday.
This will be the first full-year Budget of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government since it came to power for a third consecutive term in July last year.
The finance minister, in her Budget speech, should focus more on what she is directly responsible for, rather than on programmes where her role is largely supportive, notes Nitin Desai.
India is set to witness a roller-coaster growth in the next three years ranging between 6-7 per cent mainly due to fluctuations in prospects of industry and services sectors, according to the Asian Development Bank.
We expect the region to record another year of solid growth in 2011, the survey said.
'Inflation is not good for industry. Nor for the economy as a whole.'
S&P Global Ratings on Friday said it will watch the fiscal numbers for the next 1-2 years, besides pro-growth policies of the new government, before deciding on India's sovereign rating upgrade. S&P, which earlier this week upgraded India's outlook to positive while retaining the sovereign rating at BBB-, expects the new government to continue with pro-growth policies, infrastructure investment and commitment to fiscal consolidation.
It will be interesting to see what shifts have been recorded in the last decade-and-a-half -- from the effects of demonetisation and Covid's second wave to the drop in fertility and increase in farm workers -- but we will only know this if and when the Census is conducted, points out Aakar Patel.
It has also reduced its year-end target for the BSE benchmark Sensex by 15 per cent to 18,850.
The growth in gross domestic product will surpass 7 per cent in the current financial year, finance minister P Chidambaram said Friday.
'When people have money in their hands, they make their judgment about whether they want to spend it entirely or spend some out of it.'
Moody's Ratings on Thursday raised India's GDP growth forecast for FY24 to around 8 per cent from 6.6 per cent on the back of strong domestic consumption and capital expenditure. The estimate comes a day after RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the economic growth in the current financial year could be close to 8 per cent in view of the third quarter GDP data released by the government. The latest estimate of Moody's is about 140 basis points higher than the earlier projection of 6.6 per cent made in November 2023.
Subramanian's paper comes at a time when concerns have been raised in various quarters about the official economic growth numbers. The Economic Advisory Council-PM said the Base Year of India's income calculations were shifted to 2011-12 on the basis of recommendations of several committees with experts in national income accounting.
India's likely medium-term potential growth will almost certainly be markedly lower than that experienced in pre-pandemic years, warns Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
'As we navigate uncertain waters, a conservative approach to largecap investing could provide a strategic advantage.'
India's economy grew at 7.6 per cent in 2015-16.
